Sony could post its biggest quarterly loss in four years because of lagging PlayStation 3 sales and high launch costs, according to a report today on

“The extent of the recovery in the game business will be the main theme this fiscal year,” said Naoki Fujiwara of Tokyo’s Shinkin Asset Management.

A median estimate of 11 analysts surveyed indicates the fiscal fourth quarter net loss at Tokyo-based Sony may have widened to 75.8 billion yen ($630 million) from 66.5 billion yen a year ago. The analysts suggested that sales for the quarter were up around 9.5 percent to more than 2 trillion yen.

Sony’s fiscal quarter ended March 31 and the company will announce its results tomorrow.

Five of the 11 analysts polled said that the games division may post a quarterly loss of 121 billion yen “and a record 245 billion yen deficit for the fiscal year.” The games division is Sony’s second largest revenue-wise after the consumer electronics division, which creates the successful Bravia televisions.

According to NPD Group, the PS3 sold 501,000 units from January to March this year in the US, while the Wii sold over 1 million and Xbox 360 sold 721,000.

Merrill Lynch Japan Securities analyst Hitoshi Kuriyama, who issues a “buy” rating for Sony, said, “The 5 percent margin target is reachable if there is no price cut in the PS3. But I'm expecting a 20 percent price cut this fiscal year, and if that happens, the margin will not reach 5 percent.''